Modelling the Global Burden of Malaria


Global PfPR 2017

Global PvPR 2017

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Citations

Weiss DJ, Lucas TCD, Nguyen M, et al. Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study. Lancet 2019; published online June 19. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31097-9

Battle KE, Lucas TCD, Nguyen M, et al. Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study. Lancet 2019; published online June 19. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)31096-7

Through two ground breaking papers, the Malaria Atlas Project has released the first ever high-resolution maps of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax burden at a global scale through time. Incidence rate, clinical case count, and parasite rate maps are presented for both species. In addition, mortality maps are presented for P. falciparum. The maps cover the period 2000 to 2017.

These web pages allow you to explore our findings and download map images, raster data and model input data. All outputs are available at global level but we have also provided data pre-clipped to regional and country levels for convenience in the regional and country profile pages.

Dr. Katherine Battle led the work on P. vivax. She says: “P. vivax causes significant health issues worldwide yet until now little work had been done to understand how its burden varies globally. There are issues with both the diagnosis and treatment of P. vivax malaria that challenge its control, so up-to-date assessments of levels and trends of its global distribution are essential.”

“Globally, our findings show a decrease in P. vivax from 24.5 million cases in 2000 to 14.3 million cases in 2017, a drop of around 42%. While this is good news, our work shows that progress has plateaued in recent years and, in some places, we are seeing an increase in cases since 2013.”

The work on P. falciparum was led by Dr. Daniel Weiss. He says: “High-resolution maps of P. falciparum help to inform global policy and malaria control planning, programme implementation, and monitoring initiatives. Our work shows a 42% decrease in deaths and 27.7% decrease in incidence globally between 2005 and 2017.”

“However, as we’ve seen for P. vivax, our maps show areas where progress against P. falciparum has stalled or reversed in recent years, underscoring the fragility of hard-won gains against malaria. It’s therefore critical for the international community to continue targeting resources where they can be most effective.”