Modelling mosquito populations

Mosquito modelling and zoonotic malaria

The Malaria Atlas Project group has three research projects investigating geospatial variation among populations of the mosquito species that transmit malaria. These projects model the geographical distributions of the dominant malaria vector species, collate quantitative data on the bionomics or behaviour of these species, and analyse the relative abundance of the most important vectors in Africa pre- and post-interventions.

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Species Distributions

This project built on MAP’s earlier work, led by Marianne Sinka, that modelled the distributions of the 42 dominant vector species/complexes found globally. Using the greater volumes of species-confirmed data now available and an updated species distribution model, we produced predicted distributions for the most important vector species in Africa. Individual distributions were generated for Anopheles arabiensis, An. coluzzii, An. funestus, An. gambiae, An. melas and An. merus in addition to distributions for the Gambiae Complex as a whole and the Funestus Subgroup as a whole. The field records used and the resulting data layers generated are available with the Malaria Journal paper and at the MAP website. A new ensemble modelling approach, led by Marianne Sinka at the Oxford Long-Term Ecology Lab, is being used to predict the distributions of Asian sibling species.

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Bibliography

Wiebe, A., Longbottom, J., Gleave, K., Shearer, F.M., Massey, N.C., Bhatt, S., Cameron, E., Sinka, M.E., Smith, D.L., Hemingway, J., Gething, P.W., Coleman, M., Moyes, C.L. (2017). Geographical distributions of African malaria vector sibling species and evidence for insecticide resistance. Malaria Journal, 16: 85. [DOI: 10.1186/s12936-017-1734-y]

Sinka, M.E., Bangs, M.J., Manguin, S., Rubio-Palis, Y., Chareonviriyaphap, T., Coetzee, M., Mbogo, C.M., Hemingway, J., Patil, A.P., Temperley, W.H., Gething, P.W., Kabaria, C.W., Burkot, T.R., Harbach, R.E. and Hay, S.I. (2012). A global map of dominant malaria vectors. Parasites and Vectors, 5: 69. [DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-5-69]

Sinka, M.E., Bangs, M.J., Manguin, S., Chareonviriyaphap, T., Patil, A.P., Temperley, W.H., Gething, P.W., Elyazar, I.R.F., Kabaria, C.W., Harbach, R.E. and Hay, S.I. (2011). The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Asia-Pacific region: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis. Parasites and Vectors, 4: 89. [DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-4-89]

Sinka, M.E., Bangs, M.J., Manguin, S., Coetzee, M., Mbogo, C.M., Hemingway, J., Patil, A.P., Temperley, W.H., Gething, P.W., Kabaria, C.W., Okara, R.M., Boeckel, T.V., Godfray, H.C.J., Harbach, R.E. and Hay, S.I. (2010). The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in Africa, Europe and the Middle East: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis. Parasites and Vectors, 3: 117. [DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-3-117]

Sinka, M.E., Rubio-Palis, Y., Manguin, S., Patil, A.P., Temperley, W.H., Gething, P.W., Van Boeckel, T.P., Kabaria, C.W., Harbach, R.E. & Hay, S.I. (2010). The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Americas: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis. Parasites and Vectors, 3: 72. [DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-3-72]

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Species Bionomics

All available data on the bionomics of each of the dominant malaria vector species was collated and geopositioned. This included data on parity, daily survival rate, fecundity, gonotrophic cycle, sporozoite rate, entomological inoculation rate, human and animal biting rates, human and animal blood indices, and biting times. These metrics were recorded separately for mosquitoes captured in indoors and outdoors locations wherever possible. These data are being used in projects that consider the impact of vector behaviour on malaria control.

Data can be downloaded from our bionomics page.

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Bibliography

Killeen GF., Kiware SS., Okumu FO., Sinka ME., Moyes CL., Massey NC., Gething PW., Marshall JM., Chaccour CJ., Tusting LS. (2017) Going beyond personal protection against mosquito bites to eliminate malaria transmission: population suppression of malaria vectors that exploit both human and animal blood. BMJ Global Health 2(2). [DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2016-000198]

Massey, N.C., Garrod, G., Wiebe, A., Henry, A.J., Huang, Z., Moyes, C.L., Sinka, M.E. (2016) A global bionomic database for the dominant vectors of human malaria. Scientific Data, 3: 160014. [DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2016.14]

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Relative Species Abundance

The relative abundance of Anopheles arabiensis, An. coluzzii / gambiae and the An. funestus subgroup to each other was modelled pre- and post- the introduction of indoor insecticide-based interventions (i.e. insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying). One aim of this work was to provide relative abundance estimates for every location to malaria transmission models that already model total vector abundance and use data on the behaviour of the different vector species.

Indoor residual spraying had the greatest impact on the relative abundance of An. funestus compared to the other species, whereas insecticide-treated bed nets had the greatest impact on the relative abundance of An. funestus and An. gambiae / coluzzii compared to An. arabiensis. This study did not investigate changes in the absolute abundance of these species, which may be reduced for all species.

A new project is currently modelling the relative abundance of sibling species with the An. gambiae species complex in order to predict the composition of these species that have important behavioural and genetic differences but cannot be distinguished morphologically.

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Bibliography

Sinka, M.E., Golding, N., Massey, N.C., Wiebe, A., Huang, Z., Hay, S.I. and Moyes, C.L. (2016). Modelling the relative abundance of the primary African vectors of malaria before and after the implementation of indoor insecticide-based vector control. Malaria Journal, 15: 142. [DOI: 10.1186/s12936-016-1187-8]

Related Publications

URLDOIKilleen GF., Kiware SS., Okumu FO., Sinka ME., Moyes CL., Massey NC., Gething PW., Marshall JM., Chaccour CJ., Tusting LS.,

Going beyond personal protection against mosquito bites to eliminate malaria transmission: population suppression of malaria vectors that exploit both human and animal blood

BMJ Global Health. April 2017 2: e000198.
URLDOIWiebe A., Longbottom J., Gleave K., Shearer FM., Sinka ME., Massey NC., Cameron E., Bhatt S., Gething PW., Hemingway J., et al,

Geographical distributions of African malaria vector sibling species and evidence for insecticide resistance

Malaria Journal. February 2017 16: 85.
URLDOIMassey NC., Garrod G., Wiebe A., Henry AJ., Huang Z., Moyes CL., Sinka ME.,

A global bionomic database for the dominant vectors of human malaria

Scientific Data. March 2016 3: 160014.
URLSinka ME., Bangs MJ., Manguin S., Rubio-Palis Y., Chareonviriyaphap T., Coetzee M., Mbogo CM., Hemingway J., Patil AP., Temperley WH., et al,

A global map of dominant malaria vectors

Parasites & Vectors. 2012 5(1): 1-11.
URLDOISinka ME., Bangs MJ., Manguin S., Coetzee M., Mbogo CM., Hemingway J., Patil AP., Temperley WH., Gething PW., Kabaria CW., et al,

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in Africa, Europe and the Middle East: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

Parasites & Vectors. December 2010 3: 117.
URLDOISinka ME., Rubio-Palis Y., Manguin S., Patil AP., Temperley WH., Gething PW., Van Boeckel T., Kabaria CW., Harbach RE., Hay SI.,

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Americas: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

Parasites & Vectors. August 2010 3: 72.
URLDOISinka ME., Bangs MJ., Manguin S., Chareonviriyaphap T., Patil AP., Temperley WH., Gething PW., Elyazar IRF., Kabaria CW., Harbach RE., et al,

The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Asia Pacific region: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis

Parasites & Vectors. May 2011 4: 89.